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瑞幸咖啡成功赴美上市,烧钱模式能否持续?

Luckin Coffee, Chinese Rival to Starbucks, Jumps in Its U.S. Trading Debut
瑞幸咖啡成功赴美上市,烧钱模式能否持续?

SHANGHAI — Here’s one way to compete with Starbucks in coffee: Pay your customers.

上海——要想在咖啡上与星巴克(Starbucks)竞争,这里有一个办法:付钱给顾客。

Luckin Coffee, an unprofitable start-up offering big giveaways and aggressive subsidies, burst less than two years ago into a Chinese coffee scene long dominated by Starbucks. Helped by a smartphone app that lets users order coffee for delivery with a few finger taps, it has gained nearly 17 million customers and built 2,370 stores.

作为一家尚未盈利的初创企业,瑞幸咖啡(Luckin Coffee)会提供大量免费赠品和大幅度的优惠,不到两年前才在长期被星巴克主导的中国咖啡市场崭露头角。在几下点击就能订购咖啡的智能手机应用软件的帮助下,它已获得近1700万顾客,并开设了2370家店铺。

On Friday, stock investors in the United States had a chance to buy into this fast-growth, cash-burning model. Luckin’s shares were up 20 percent at the end of their trading debut in New York, after an initial public offering that valued the company at about $4 billion.

周五,美国的股票投资者有机会入股这一快速增长、同时也快速烧钱的模式。在将公司估值约40亿美元的首次公开募股后,瑞幸在纽交所上市交易首日上涨20%。

员工欢庆瑞幸咖啡在纳斯达克上市。
Luckin offers proof that China’s weakened tech start-up scene still has some of its old pop.

瑞幸咖啡证明,势头趋弱的中国科技初创企业领域仍然存有一些旧时的光彩。

In recent years, new Chinese companies have risen to prominence, raising and burning money at a pace that would make Silicon Valley blush. Bike-sharing start-ups popped up overnight, flooding cities with tens of millions of rainbow-colored dockless bikes. A boom in online food and retail delivery has left the streets of Beijing and Shanghai cluttered with delivery men in bumblebee-yellow or blue helmets and suits, the colors of the two most dominant delivery companies.

近年来,新的中国公司在崛起,他们筹集和燃烧资金的速度令硅谷自愧弗如。共享单车初创企业一夜之间出现,用数千万辆五彩缤纷的无桩自行车淹没城市。在线餐饮和零售业递送的蓬勃发展使得北京和上海街头挤满头戴蜂黄色或蓝色头盔、身着制服的送餐员,这两种颜色是两家最大外卖公司的颜色。

Many of those companies have since scaled back, and some have flamed out, as China’s economy slows and financing for tech firms begins to dry up.

随着中国经济放缓、科技公司资金开始枯竭,许多这些公司已经缩减规模,有些则已经崩盘。

“You need to take some time for these companies to become profitable,” said Ringo Choi, managing partner for China at EY, the consulting firm. “Not all will become the next Amazon, and not all of them have the fundamentals to sustain them.”

“这些公司要盈利是需要时间的,”咨询公司安永(EY)在中国的主管合伙人蔡伟荣(Ringo Choi)说。“不是所有公司都能成为下一个亚马逊,也不是所有公司都有能维持下去的基础架构。”

Luckin hopes to buck that trend and challenge Starbucks as the reigning king of a tea-drinking country that only relatively recently discovered the joys of java. Starbucks, the Seattle-based coffee chain, holds just over half of the Chinese coffee and specialty tea market, according to Euromonitor International, a market research provider. By the end of 2018, Luckin held just over 2 percent of the market, according to Euromonitor estimates.

瑞幸希望打破这个趋势,挑战星巴克,在这个相对较晚才开始享受咖啡乐趣的饮茶大国成为霸主。根据市场研究机构欧睿信息咨询(Euromonitor International)的数据,总部位于西雅图的咖啡连锁店星巴克占据了中国咖啡和特色茶饮市场的一半以上。据欧睿估计,到2018年底,瑞幸的市场份额仅略高于2%。

But the growth opportunities are huge. In just four years, China’s specialty tea and coffee market has grown from $2.7 billion in revenues to $4.8 billion, Euromonitor says. The market is still diffuse, as well. The next-biggest competitor to Starbucks, the McDonald’s-owned McCafe, has just 5 percent of the market.

但增长机会是巨大的。欧睿说,在短短四年时间里,中国的特色茶饮和咖啡市场的收入从27亿美元增长到了48亿美元。市场仍然很分散。星巴克之下,位居第二的是麦当劳旗下的麦咖啡(McCafe),它仅有5%的市场份额。

Luckin has grown rapidly since its founding in late 2017. It was begun by the entrepreneur Jenny Qian Zhiya and has been backed by several investment firms in China, the United States and Singapore, including BlackRock. It plans to increase its storefronts to have the largest coffee chain network in China by the end of this year. That would catapult it past Starbucks, which has 3,600 stores in China.

瑞幸自2017年底成立以来发展迅速。它由创业者钱治亚创办,得到了中国、美国和新加坡几家投资公司的支持,其中包括贝莱德(BlackRock)。瑞幸计划在今年年底之前增加店面,成为中国最大的咖啡连锁网络,一举超越在中国拥有3600家门店的星巴克。

Sustaining that growth depends in large part on whether Luckin can keep its customers. On social media, some people rave about its cheap and convenient coffee. They praise it for coming up with specialty drinks that appeal to the varied tastes of Chinese consumers, like a concoction it calls guava cheese ruby tea.

保持这种增长在很大程度上取决于瑞幸能否留住客户。在社交媒体上,一些人对其便宜便捷的咖啡赞不绝口。他们称赞瑞幸推出了迎合中国消费者的多种口味特色饮料,比如一种名为芭乐芝士红宝石茶的调制茶。

Others deride its taste and say its coffee is just an overpriced version of convenience store sludge.

也有人嘲笑它的味道,说它的咖啡只是便利店劣质咖啡的高价版。

Several times a week, Liu Zhiyan, 34, likes to walk over to the Luckin near her work to get a jolt of caffeine. “Luckin is not as good as Starbucks — the flavor is not so rich,” Ms. Liu said. She used to drink Starbucks once a week but has found herself buying coffee more frequently because Luckin’s coffees are cheaper.

34岁的刘芝妍每周都会有好几次步行到公司附近的瑞幸去喝杯咖啡。“瑞幸稍微有点欠缺,口感多少有点没有星巴克浓郁,”刘志燕说。她过去每周喝一次星巴克,但现在买咖啡更频繁了,因为瑞幸的咖啡更便宜。

“The price is low,” Ms. Liu said. “You get what you pay for.”

“毕竟价格在那里,”刘女士说。“一分价钱一分货。”

A spokesman for Luckin declined to comment before the company’s debut on the Nasdaq exchange, citing a quiet period as the company was going public.

瑞幸发言人拒绝于该公司在纳斯达克(Nasdaq)上市之前置评,理由是公司上市前正处于静默期。

Luckin prices its coffee similarly to Starbucks coffee but then offers steep discounts. Most of its espresso-based coffees cost between $3.50 and $4, but customers rarely pay the full price because of daily discounts of 50 percent or more. Luckin gives away its first coffee to a new subscriber to its app. A friend referral to the app gets customers another free coffee.

瑞幸咖啡的定价与星巴克咖啡相似,但会提供大幅折扣。大多数以意式浓缩为基础的咖啡售价在3.5美元至4美元之间,但由于每天有50%或更多的折扣,顾客很少支付全价。瑞幸向其应用的新订户免费赠送第一杯咖啡,向好友推荐该应用则可以再得到一杯免费咖啡。

Luckin also lures coffee drinkers with big promotions, resulting in huge sums of money going back into the pockets of customers.

瑞幸还通过大型促销活动吸引咖啡饮用者,因此有大量资金返回到了消费者的钱包里。

One current promotion encourages customers to buy seven or more items in a week, either individually or within a group, putting them into a pool of similar customers. At the end of the week everyone in the pool will get a cut of 5 million renminbi, or about $723,000. Each participant in last week’s pool took home $4, the company said. Over the 10-week program, Luckin tells its customers, it will give them back more than $7 million.

当前一项促销活动鼓励顾客每周消费7件或更多产品,可单独也可组团购买,这样便可将他们归为一组相似顾客。到周末,各小组成员均有机会参与瓜分500万人民币(约合72.3万美元)。公司说每个前一周参与活动的小组成员都能到手4美元。在为期10周的活动中,瑞幸称将回馈700万美元给顾客。

Those offers would eat into Luckin’s profits, if it had any. Money spent on growth led the company to record a net loss of $475 million in 2018. So far this year, the company has racked up losses of $85 million.

这些优惠会抵消瑞幸的利润——如果有盈利的话。增长上的资金投入致使该公司2018年录得净亏损4.75亿美元。今年截至目前为止,该公司已累积亏损8500万美元。

Though they both sell coffee, Luckin and Starbucks approach the China market in different ways. Luckin depends heavily on takeout and delivery, a popular option in a country where people like to order meals on their smartphones. Luckin also runs small stores where customers can pick up their coffee, check out the latest discounts or learn about other offers.

虽然都销售咖啡,瑞幸和星巴克在中国市场却有着不同的营销方式。瑞幸主要靠外卖和送货上门,在这个喜欢在智能手机上点餐的国度,这是个受欢迎的选择。瑞幸还运营小店面,顾客可以前去那里取咖啡,查询最新折扣或了解他们的优惠方案。

如果瑞幸在美国出售股票的计划成功,这家不盈利、仍未经受考验的公司的市值可高达40亿美元。
Starbucks, by contrast, usually offers roomy stores known as a comfortable place to hang out, a refuge from prying parents or a crowded family apartment. Its green-and-white logo holds an aura of affluence in China, and the company has won intense loyalty among many Chinese.

相比之下,星巴克通常会提供宽敞的店面,被认为是闲聚的舒适场所、逃避爱打听的父母或拥挤家庭住所的地方。它绿白相间的标志在中国带有一种优渥生活的意味,并且赢得了许多忠实的中国顾客。

“I have never gone to Luckin,” said Zhang Sheng, a recent college graduate who drinks coffee three times a week. “I am loyal to Starbucks because they have good loyalty program.”

“我从没去过瑞幸,”大学刚毕业、每周喝三次咖啡的张圣说。“我忠于星巴克是因为它们有很好的忠诚度奖励计划。”

Starbucks has its own expansion plans, with a goal of nearly doubling its China stories by 2022. Still, in a nod last summer to its new competitor, Starbucks announced a partnership with the e-commerce giant Alibaba to provide delivery of its coffee through Alibaba’s subsidiary, Ele.me. Representatives for Starbucks did not respond to requests for comment.

星巴克本身也有扩张计划,目标是在2022年使中国店面数量近乎翻一番。但为回应新的竞争者,星巴克去年宣布与电商巨头阿里巴巴建立合作关系,通过阿里巴巴子公司饿了么提供咖啡外送服务。星巴克代表未回应置评请求。

The next big question for Luckin is how it can start making money. It is unclear whether customers who like Luckin’s discounted coffee will be willing to fork over the full price once those discounts are lifted.

瑞幸的下一个大问题在于,如何开始盈利。一旦折扣取消,尚不清楚喜欢瑞幸打折咖啡的顾客是否愿意支付全价。

For Owen Sun, a 31-year-old who works in product placement for a luxury company, Luckin provides fast coffee when he is too busy to leave work. But he is a fickle consumer, and on a recent day was waiting in a long line at a Shanghai coffee shop called Manner.

对现年31岁、在奢侈品公司从事植入式广告业务的欧文·孙(Owen Sun)而言,瑞幸为忙得无法脱身的他提供了便捷的咖啡。但他不是个“专一”的消费者,不久前的一天,他在上海一家名叫Manner的咖啡店外排着的长队等待着。

“To be honest, Starbucks does a better job in packaging the coffee,” Mr. Sun said. “If the price of Luckin coffee went to $4 with no coupons, I might buy Starbucks.”

“说实话,包装各方面可能星巴克更好一点,”欧文·孙说。“如果(瑞幸)是27块的话,我可能会买回星巴克。”
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